THE SIMULATION
5.87 MANA, FIVE DIFFERENT COLOURS
Your commander is never the problem — she lands on turn three in 8,028 of 10,000 seeded games. The problem is the mana you actually have on turn six and the five distinct pips you owe every time you want to do something with her.
Keepable first sevens84%
Commander cast by turn 699%
Sisay online with a five-colour mana source68%
Sisay online with a three-colour legend to grow her52%
Early accelerant drawn75%
Commander protection available88%
| Turn | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Land drop hit | 100% | 100% | 94% | 84% | 74% | 64% | 56% | 48% | 46% | 43% |
| Mean mana | 1.0 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 8.3 |
| Mean bodies | 0.2 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 6.4 |
Simulation File
- Iterations
- 10,000
- Seed
- 42
- Decklist sha
- a4bcbd509313
What this model does and does not do. These runs simulate resource development, not full games. Every assumption is stated:
- Simulates resource development, not full games (no interaction, no removal).
- Draw every turn including turn 1 (multiplayer Commander).
- Mulligan: keep 7-card hands with 2-5 lands; up to 2 fresh redraws, keep the last.
- One land drop per turn when available.
- Mana rocks ('{T}: Add') contribute from the turn after they are cast.
- Commander cast on first affordable turn (highest spending priority).
- Bodies count = creatures cast + tokens parsed from 'create ... token' text.
- Target assembly counts cards DRAWN by a turn (cast cards still count).
- Cost reducers, rituals, and extra card draw are not modeled (conservative).
Pilot TipTreat Bloom Tender as the difference between casting Sisay and using her — the five-colour target assembles at a mean of turn 4.22 and only 55.8% of the time by turn six.
The model never struggles to cast her. It struggles to pay her.
By the NumbersMYTHIC DEAL · VOL. 003
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